Nobody wants Stratospheric Aerosol Injection; if only the mirror was <15 years away this discussion wouldn't be necessary. Unfortunately there are set in stone economic reasons Stratospheric Aerosol Injection WILL be implemented. Not should or shouldn't, will.
Let's act like this is 100% about money and not helping others. We don't need the moral argument, SAI will occur due to a December 7th trigger event(s). This will be in the developing world sooner OR the rich world later.
Even if we got our act together and pulled off 2050 carbon neutral (extremely unlikely!) that would mean 2060 peak damage/costs with minimum warming lag (10-20 predicted continued ocean heat absorption).
The 2050 damage amount is 19-51 trillion dollars so 2060 is significantly worse. we are talking about 10-30% or world GDP loss. The knock on societal effects will be staggering. We keep our problems unentangled (economics, environment, societal) but they will form a dynamic we are completely unprepared for. Like cascading organ failure. If no one else China will at some point implement SAI assuming we convince the developing world to avoid it... which is essentially a slow-walk to the gallows for more than half of human societies.
Not pushing to have as much money as possible pour into SAI development is imply unethical. It's a rich world timeline. And to be honest the rich world doesn't understand how bad things will also be for them. They don't understand how much of this is locked in. But you do!
Please just tell me there is another affordable near term solution to very significantly slow sea level rise by decades and that can be implemented in <15 years other than Stratospheric Aerosol Injection... OR... tell me I'm wrong about how bad things will become.
Thanks for your time
Kevin
(I do have a full argument presentation at sai-reality.com but I'd be grateful just addressing the above)
Paul, that was great and Dakota is too. If you can do an episode soon on the whole climate fiasco and besides ghgs talk w/m2 too that would give a nice background for future episodes.
Hi Dakota and Paul.
Nobody wants Stratospheric Aerosol Injection; if only the mirror was <15 years away this discussion wouldn't be necessary. Unfortunately there are set in stone economic reasons Stratospheric Aerosol Injection WILL be implemented. Not should or shouldn't, will.
Let's act like this is 100% about money and not helping others. We don't need the moral argument, SAI will occur due to a December 7th trigger event(s). This will be in the developing world sooner OR the rich world later.
Even if we got our act together and pulled off 2050 carbon neutral (extremely unlikely!) that would mean 2060 peak damage/costs with minimum warming lag (10-20 predicted continued ocean heat absorption).
The 2050 damage amount is 19-51 trillion dollars so 2060 is significantly worse. we are talking about 10-30% or world GDP loss. The knock on societal effects will be staggering. We keep our problems unentangled (economics, environment, societal) but they will form a dynamic we are completely unprepared for. Like cascading organ failure. If no one else China will at some point implement SAI assuming we convince the developing world to avoid it... which is essentially a slow-walk to the gallows for more than half of human societies.
Not pushing to have as much money as possible pour into SAI development is imply unethical. It's a rich world timeline. And to be honest the rich world doesn't understand how bad things will also be for them. They don't understand how much of this is locked in. But you do!
Please just tell me there is another affordable near term solution to very significantly slow sea level rise by decades and that can be implemented in <15 years other than Stratospheric Aerosol Injection... OR... tell me I'm wrong about how bad things will become.
Thanks for your time
Kevin
(I do have a full argument presentation at sai-reality.com but I'd be grateful just addressing the above)
I see she was also on Volt's recently. Good to see the discussion expanding. Small request - can you also post a transcript of your podcasts? Thanks.
Paul, that was great and Dakota is too. If you can do an episode soon on the whole climate fiasco and besides ghgs talk w/m2 too that would give a nice background for future episodes.