Here is the first episode of the Inevitable & Obvious podcast! I’m very excited to publish this interview with Dakota Gruener of Reflective, and I hope you find it valuable and informative. Please leave comments below if you have suggestions for guests, topics, or even formatting of the show.
Summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection might be one of the only interventions that could reduce global warming on the timescales that actually matter, but we don’t yet know enough to say if it’s completely worth the potential tradeoffs, and we’re not on track to find out in time. Dakota Gruener is the founder and CEO of Reflective, an independent nonprofit trying to change that by radically accelerating the research. In this conversation, we talk about what it would take to actually evaluate SAI:
The tools Reflective has built to map the unknowns
The case for something like clinical trials for the atmosphere
Why Dakota thinks the worst outcome isn’t deployment but decisions being forced before the science is ready.
Chapter Timestamps
0:00 – Cold open: what happens when people first learn about climate intervention
0:15 – Introduction and why Dakota was the first guest
1:15 – What is Reflective? Dakota’s path from vaccines to climate
4:26 – SAI research: fast enough to matter
5:31 – What would the decision room actually look like?
7:00 – We don’t even have a shared map of the questions
8:41 – Why AI is accelerating and climate intervention isn’t
11:23 – Responding to critics: should this research be happening?
13:00 – The moral hazard argument and what focus groups actually show
15:25 – The SAI Simulator: what it does and who it’s for
17:32 – Live demo: walking through the simulator
22:09 – Risks are scenario-dependent, not inherent
23:48 – How journalists, policymakers, and researchers are using the tools
25:43 – Digital infrastructure barriers and Global South access
28:10 – The Degrees Forum in Cape Town: researchers whooping and hollering
29:39 – The Uncertainty Database: building a shared map for SAI research
33:16 – The scenario: outdoor experiments, slow ramp-up, 2035 timeline
37:16 – Aerosol size distribution: the factor-of-two problem
40:58 – Who is the Uncertainty Database for? Researchers and funders
43:12 – How much does funding shape the research agenda?
45:53 – Bottlenecks: money, outdoor experiments, and the dangerous middle
49:02 – Clinical trials for the atmosphere: stage-gated research
50:45 – The slippery slope and faith in institutions
53:12 – What’s coming next at Reflective: ML emulators and the cloud hub
Links and Resources
• Reflective — reflective.org
• Reflective SAI Simulator — simulator.reflective.org
• Reflective Uncertainty Database — uncertainties.reflective.org
This and every episode I publish is free because I want these conversations to reach as many people as possible. Paid subscriptions are how I keep doing this work independently. They allow me to follow the research on climate interventions and meet the researchers, practitioners, founders, and policymakers shaping how this landscape evolves. Paid members get access to our community chat, where we discuss the latest developments in climate interventions and make sense of them together. If you found this conversation valuable, I'd appreciate your support.
